As cryptocurrencies gain popularity, the digital asset marketplace becomes increasingly significant. Understanding social media signals offers valuable insights into investor sentiment and market dynamics. Prior research has predominantly focused on text-based platforms such as Twitter. However, video content remains underexplored, despite potentially containing richer emotional and contextual sentiment that is not fully captured by text alone. In this study, we present a multimodal analysis comparing TikTok and Twitter sentiment, using large language models to extract insights from both video and text data. We investigate the dynamic dependencies and spillover effects between social media sentiment and cryptocurrency market indicators. Our results reveal that TikTok's video-based sentiment significantly influences speculative assets and short-term market trends, while Twitter's text-based sentiment aligns more closely with long-term dynamics. Notably, the integration of cross-platform sentiment signals improves forecasting accuracy by up to 20%.

--Cryptocurrency markets are characterized by extreme volatility, making accurate forecasts essential for effective risk management and informed trading strategies. Traditional deterministic (point) forecasting methods are inadequate for capturing the full spectrum of potential volatility outcomes, underscoring the importance of probabilistic approaches. T o address this limitation, this paper introduces probabilistic forecasting methods that leverage point forecasts from a wide range of base models, including statistical (HAR, GARCH, ARFIMA) and machine learning (e.g. LASSO, SVR, MLP, Random Forest, LSTM) algorithms, to estimate conditional quantiles of cryp-tocurrency realized variance. T o the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in the literature to propose and systematically evaluate probabilistic forecasts of variance in cryptocurrency markets based on predictions derived from multiple base models. Our empirical results for Bitcoin demonstrate that the Quantile Estimation through Residual Simulation (QRS) method, particularly when applied to linear base models operating on log-transformed realized volatility data, consistently outperforms more sophisticated alternatives. Additionally, we highlight the robustness of the probabilistic stacking framework, providing comprehensive insights into uncertainty and risk inherent in cryptocurrency volatility forecasting. This research fills a significant gap in the literature, contributing practical probabilistic forecasting methodologies tailored specifically to cryptocurrency markets. Probabilistic forecasting of cryptocurrency volatility is essential due to the considerable uncertainty and frequent occurrence of extreme price movements in cryptocurrency markets. Unlike traditional point forecasts, probabilistic methods estimate the entire conditional distribution (or its fine-grained approximation using densely spaced quantiles) of future volatility, thereby capturing the full range of potential outcomes and significantly improving risk assessment and decision-making in these highly unpredictable markets. Despite these clear benefits, probabilistic forecasting methods remain relatively scarce in the cryptocurrency volatility literature.

Synthetic time series are essential tools for data augmentation, stress testing, and algorithmic prototyping in quantitative finance. However, in cryptocurrency markets, characterized by 24/7 trading, extreme volatility, and rapid regime shifts, existing Time Series Generation (TSG) methods and benchmarks often fall short, jeopardizing practical utility. Most prior work (1) targets non-financial or traditional financial domains, (2) focuses narrowly on classification and forecasting while neglecting crypto-specific complexities, and (3) lacks critical financial evaluations, particularly for trading applications. To address these gaps, we introduce \textsf{CTBench}, the first comprehensive TSG benchmark tailored for the cryptocurrency domain. \textsf{CTBench} curates an open-source dataset from 452 tokens and evaluates TSG models across 13 metrics spanning 5 key dimensions: forecasting accuracy, rank fidelity, trading performance, risk assessment, and computational efficiency. A key innovation is a dual-task evaluation framework: (1) the \emph{Predictive Utility} task measures how well synthetic data preserves temporal and cross-sectional patterns for forecasting, while (2) the \emph{Statistical Arbitrage} task assesses whether reconstructed series support mean-reverting signals for trading. We benchmark eight representative models from five methodological families over four distinct market regimes, uncovering trade-offs between statistical fidelity and real-world profitability. Notably, \textsf{CTBench} offers model ranking analysis and actionable guidance for selecting and deploying TSG models in crypto analytics and strategy development.

The detection of outliers within cryptocurrency limit order books (LOBs) is of paramount importance for comprehending market dynamics, particularly in highly volatile and nascent regulatory environments. This study conducts a comprehensive comparative analysis of robust statistical methods and advanced machine learning techniques for real-time anomaly identification in cryptocurrency LOBs. Within a unified testing environment, named AITA Order Book Signal (AITA-OBS), we evaluate the efficacy of thirteen diverse models to identify which approaches are most suitable for detecting potentially manipulative trading behaviours. An empirical evaluation, conducted via backtesting on a dataset of 26,204 records from a major exchange, demonstrates that the top-performing model, Empirical Covariance (EC), achieves a 6.70% gain, significantly outperforming a standard Buy-and-Hold benchmark. These findings underscore the effectiveness of outlier-driven strategies and provide insights into the trade-offs between model complexity, trade frequency, and performance. This study contributes to the growing corpus of research on cryptocurrency market microstructure by furnishing a rigorous benchmark of anomaly detection models and highlighting their potential for augmenting algorithmic trading and risk management.

This study investigates the impact of data source diversity on the performance of cryptocurrency forecasting models by integrating various data categories, including technical indicators, on-chain metrics, sentiment and interest metrics, traditional market indices, and macroeconomic indicators. We introduce the Crypto100 index, representing the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, and propose a novel feature reduction algorithm to identify the most impactful and resilient features from diverse data sources. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate that data source diversity significantly enhances the predictive performance of forecasting models across different time horizons. Key findings include the paramount importance of on-chain metrics for both short-term and long-term predictions, the growing relevance of traditional market indices and macroeconomic indicators for longer-term forecasts, and substantial improvements in model accuracy when diverse data sources are utilized. These insights help demystify the short-term and long-term driving factors of the cryptocurrency market and lay the groundwork for developing more accurate and resilient forecasting models.

Cryptocurrencies have transformed financial markets with their innovative blockchain technology and volatile price movements, presenting both challenges and opportunities for predictive analytics. Ethereum, being one of the leading cryptocurrencies, has experienced significant market fluctuations, making its price prediction an attractive yet complex problem. This paper presents a comprehensive study on the effectiveness of Large Language Models (LLMs) in predicting Ethereum prices for short-term and few-shot forecasting scenarios. The main challenge in training models for time series analysis is the lack of data. We address this by leveraging a novel approach that adapts existing pre-trained LLMs on natural language or images from billions of tokens to the unique characteristics of Ethereum price time series data. Through thorough experimentation and comparison with traditional and contemporary models, our results demonstrate that selectively freezing certain layers of pre-trained LLMs achieves state-of-the-art performance in this domain. This approach consistently surpasses benchmarks across multiple metrics, including Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), demonstrating its effectiveness and robustness. Our research not only contributes to the existing body of knowledge on LLMs but also provides practical insights in the cryptocurrency prediction domain. The adaptability of pre-trained LLMs to handle the nature of Ethereum prices suggests a promising direction for future research, potentially including the integration of sentiment analysis to further refine forecasting accuracy.

Masterminds are entities organizing, coordinating, and orchestrating cryptocurrency pump-and-dump schemes, a form of trade-based manipulation undermining market integrity and causing financial losses for unwitting investors. Previous research detects pump-and-dump activities in the market, predicts the target cryptocurrency, and examines investors and \ac{osn} entities. However, these solutions do not address the root cause of the problem. There is a critical gap in identifying and tracing the masterminds involved in these schemes. In this research, we develop a detection system \textsc{Perseus}, which collects real-time data from the \acs{osn} and cryptocurrency markets. \textsc{Perseus} then constructs temporal attributed graphs that preserve the direction of information diffusion and the structure of the community while leveraging \ac{gnn} to identify the masterminds behind pump-and-dump activities. Our design of \textsc{Perseus} leads to higher F1 scores and precision than the \ac{sota} fraud detection method, achieving fast training and inferring speeds. Deployed in the real world from February 16 to October 9 2024, \textsc{Perseus} successfully detects $438$ masterminds who are efficient in the pump-and-dump information diffusion networks. \textsc{Perseus} provides regulators with an explanation of the risks of masterminds and oversight capabilities to mitigate the pump-and-dump schemes of cryptocurrency.

--Cryptocurrencies fluctuate in markets with high price volatility, which becomes a great challenge for investors. T o aid investors in making informed decisions, systems predicting cryptocurrency market movements have been developed, commonly framed as feature-driven regression problems that focus solely on historical patterns favored by domain experts. However, these methods overlook three critical factors that significantly influence the cryptocurrency market dynamics: 1) the macro investing environment, reflected in major cryp-tocurrency fluctuations, which can affect investors collaborative behaviors, 2) overall market sentiment, heavily influenced by news, which impacts investors strategies, and 3) technical indicators, which offer insights into overbought or oversold conditions, momentum, and market trends are often ignored despite their relevance in shaping short-term price movements. In this paper, we propose a dual prediction mechanism that enables the model to forecast the next day's closing price by incorporating macroeconomic fluctuations, technical indicators, and individual cryptocurrency price changes. Furthermore, we introduce a novel refinement mechanism that enhances the prediction through market sentiment-based rescaling and fusion. In experiments, the proposed model achieves state-of-the-art performance (SOT A), consistently outperforming ten comparison methods in most cases. Cryptocurrencies have recently become a topic of conversation due to their great impact on the financial world. This heightened attention is fueled by several factors including the sudden drops and shocks in cryptocurrency markets [1], which offer opportunities for substantial returns, and the innovative technologies underpinning these assets, such as Blockchain [2], [3]. Unlike traditional financial markets such as bonds and stocks, the cryptocurrency market is characterized by a comparatively smaller market capitalization and pronounced volatility in short-term fluctuations [4], creating a unique and challenging investment landscape. This volatility stems from a complex interplay of factors that perpetuate a self-fulfilling cycle.

This paper offers a thorough examination of the univariate predictability in cryptocurrency time-series. By exploiting a combination of complexity measure and model predictions we explore the cryptocurrencies time-series forecasting task focusing on the exchange rate in USD of Litecoin, Binance Coin, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. On one hand, to assess the complexity and the randomness of these time-series, a comparative analysis has been performed using Brownian and colored noises as a benchmark. The results obtained from the Complexity-Entropy causality plane and power density spectrum analysis reveal that cryptocurrency time-series exhibit characteristics closely resembling those of Brownian noise when analyzed in a univariate context. On the other hand, the application of a wide range of statistical, machine and deep learning models for time-series forecasting demonstrates the low predictability of cryptocurrencies. Notably, our analysis reveals that simpler models such as Naive models consistently outperform the more complex machine and deep learning ones in terms of forecasting accuracy across different forecast horizons and time windows. The combined study of complexity and forecasting accuracies highlights the difficulty of predicting the cryptocurrency market. These findings provide valuable insights into the inherent characteristics of the cryptocurrency data and highlight the need to reassess the challenges associated with predicting cryptocurrency's price movements.

Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial instruments with more and more new retail investors joining the scene with each passing day. Bitcoin has always proved to determine in which way the rest of the cryptocurrency market is headed towards. As of today Bitcoin has a market dominance of close to 50 percent. Bull and bear phases in cryptocurrencies are determined based on the performance of Bitcoin over the 50 Day and 200 Day Moving Averages. The aim of this paper is to foretell the performance of bitcoin in the near future by employing predictive algorithms. This predicted data will then be used to calculate the 50 Day and 200 Day Moving Averages and subsequently plotted to establish the potential bull and bear phases.